Working Papers and Work in Progress
- “It Could Have Been Me": Homeland Terrorism, Counterfactual Thinking, and Political Trust among Immigrants, R&R American Political Science Review, joint with Vincenzo Bove, Marco Giani, Amélie Godefroidt
Abstract
The effects of political violence may travel across borders in unexpected ways. We argue that terrorist attacks in immigrants' countries of origin can activate downward counterfactual thinking anchored in the decision to migrate ("it could have been me"), evoking gratitude toward the country of residence and increasing trust in its institutions. Leveraging nine waves of the European Social Survey (2004-2020) across 39 residence countries merged with event-level data from the Global Terrorism Database, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in interview timing around deadly attacks. Comparing otherwise similar immigrants interviewed shortly before versus after attacks, we find that first-generation immigrants, especially those from weaker institutional origins, increase their trust in residence-country institutions in response to terrorism in their country of origin. No comparable response emerges among second-generation individuals, who lack the relevant migration-based counterfactual. These findings reveal a novel pathway through which distant violence can reinforce, rather than undermine, institutional trust.
- Come Rain or Shine: Extreme Weather, Climate Attitudes and Behaviour
- Carbon Emissions Begin at Home: Evidence from UK Households, joint with Lucie Gadenne, Ludovica Gazze, Peter Levell
- Perceived Agency and Motivated Reasoning, Awarded LIEPP General Research Grant (2026)