Working Papers and Work in Progress

• “It Could Have Been Me": Homeland Terrorism, Counterfactual Thinking, and Political Trust among Immigrants, R&R American Political Science Review, joint with Vincenzo Bove, Marco Giani, Amélie Godefroidt
  Abstract

  The effects of political violence may travel across borders in unexpected ways. We argue that terrorist attacks in immigrants' countries of origin can activate downward counterfactual thinking anchored in the decision to migrate ("it could have been me"), evoking gratitude toward the country of residence and increasing trust in its institutions. Leveraging nine waves of the European Social Survey (2004-2020) across 39 residence countries merged with event-level data from the Global Terrorism Database, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in interview timing around deadly attacks. Comparing otherwise similar immigrants interviewed shortly before versus after attacks, we find that first-generation immigrants, especially those from weaker institutional origins, increase their trust in residence-country institutions in response to terrorism in their country of origin. No comparable response emerges among second-generation individuals, who lack the relevant migration-based counterfactual. These findings reveal a novel pathway through which distant violence can reinforce, rather than undermine, institutional trust.

• Come Rain or Shine: Extreme Weather, Climate Attitudes and Behaviour
  Abstract

  Whether personal experience with extreme weather translates into climate action remains unclear. This paper estimates the short- and long-run effects of local temperature anomalies on climate beliefs and carbon-related behaviour, by leveraging the UK Household Longitudinal Study merged with high-resolution temperature anomalies. Using quasi-random interview timing around these shocks, I find that extreme heat increases climate concern in the short run (by about 3% of the mean in beliefs), but the effect fades within 2-3 months. Exploiting variation in cumulative anomaly exposure over multiple years, I then show that sustained exposure works in the opposite direction: while pro-environmental beliefs trend upward over the sample period, the most exposed individuals gain about 2 points less on a 0-100 belief scale than comparable unexposed households, with the attenuation concentrated among those with higher baseline concern and greater material stakes. Behavioural responses show a persistent belief-action gap and only small long-run adjustment. Overall, the results suggest that experience with extreme temperatures is an unreliable driver of climate action.

• Places, People or Houses? Households' Carbon Emissions in the UK, joint with Lucie Gadenne, Ludovica Gazze, Peter Levell
• Perceived Agency and Motivated Reasoning, Awarded LIEPP General Research Grant (2026)

Publications