Working Papers and Work in Progress

• Come Rain or Shine: Extreme Weather, Climate Attitudes and Behaviour
  Abstract

  Climate change is intensifying, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe, yet whether personal experience translates into climate action remains unclear. This paper studies the short- and long-run effects of local temperature anomalies on climate-related beliefs and carbon behaviour. Using panel data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study merged with high-resolution local temperature records, I exploit quasi-random variation in interview timing around temperature shocks and cumulative exposure over multiple years. In the short run, exposure to extreme heat increases climate concern (by about 3% of the mean deviation in beliefs), but these effects fade within 2–3 months. In contrast, cumulative exposure to heat waves over several years is associated with lower pro-environmental beliefs (the most exposed see a decline of nearly 2 points on a 0–100 scale), particularly among individuals with higher baseline anxiety and greater material stakes, consistent with motivated interpretation of these signals. Behavioural responses diverge from stated beliefs and show only small long-run adjustment. Overall, the results suggest that personal experience with extreme temperature is an unreliable driver of climate mitigation.

• People, Places or Houses? A Decomposition of Households' Carbon Emissions in the UK, joint with Lucie Gadenne, Ludovica Gazze, Peter Levell
• “It Could Have Been Me": Homeland Terrorism, Counterfactual Thinking, and Political Trust among Immigrants, joint with Vincenzo Bove, Marco Giani, Amélie Godefroidt
  Abstract

  The effects of political violence may travel across borders in unexpected ways. We argue that terrorist attacks in immigrants' countries of origin can activate downward counterfactual thinking anchored in the decision to migrate ("it could have been me"), evoking gratitude toward the country of residence and increasing trust in its institutions. Leveraging nine waves of the European Social Survey (2004-2020) across 39 residence countries merged with event-level data from the Global Terrorism Database, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in interview timing around deadly attacks. Comparing otherwise similar immigrants interviewed shortly before versus after attacks, we find that first-generation immigrants, especially those from weaker institutional origins, increase their trust in residence-country institutions in response to terrorism in their country of origin. No comparable response emerges among second-generation individuals, who lack the relevant migration-based counterfactual. These findings reveal a novel pathway through which distant violence can reinforce, rather than undermine, institutional trust.

• Perceived Agency and Motivated Reasoning

Publications