Work in Progress
- Come Rain or Shine: Extreme Weather, Climate Attitudes and Affective Polarization
- People, Places or Houses? A Decomposition of Households' Carbon Emissions in the UK, joint with Lucie Gadenne (QMUL, IFS), Ludovica Gazze (Warwick), Peter Levell (IFS)
- The Echo of Violence: Conflict at Home and Institutional Trust Abroad, joint with Vincenzo Bove (IMT Lucca), Marco Giani (King's College London), Amélie Godefroidt (KU Leuven)
Abstract
The UK has become increasingly polarized, including over environmental issues. In this paper, I explore the linkage between firsthand experiences of climate extremes, such as temperature anomalies, and shifts in personal opinions about climate change to understand whether differential processing of these signals can have an effect on polarization. Exploiting the temporal overlap between weather shocks and survey responses, findings reveal that people react negatively to cold extremes, reducing their pro-environmental beliefs and attitudes, while they report more climate friendly views when the anomaly is particularly salient and positive (i.e. a heat shock). This suggests one possible channel for the persistence of denial beliefs: a mental model aligned with global warming, rather than climate change. The positive effect is confined to progressives, while conservatives remain more skeptical. Moreover, I show some evidence of learning; individuals in areas exposed to extremes in the past year are more likely to change their views, with progressives again driving this effect. Finally, the second part of the project, which is currently underway, exploits the longitudinal dimension of the data, and tries to understand the determinants of sticky climate behaviour, exploring the role of populist narratives and media bias.